Forecasting using Data - Using historical data for better demand, capacity, and planning forecasts with Troy Magennis



Using historical data for better demand, capacity, and planning forecasts.

This talk explains how to forecast capacity or delivery dates using a team's historical data. Probabilistic forecasting allows planning to take into account uncertainty and things that might happen (risks) and help communicate those plans to others.

We will cover:

  • The goals and practicality of forecasting using data
  • Learn when it is safe to forecast using historical data (and when it isn't)
  • Learn how to forecast expected future values from data trends
  • Learn how to predict how much work will be done by the desired date
  • Learn about the most significant system impacts that cause the most impact on delivery plans 

By the end of this talk, you will know how to start forecasting and be able to explain to others why it works.

About Troy

Troy Magennis is a seasoned IT professional and executive, having helped deliver valuable software to customers at scale since 1994. In 2011 he founded Focused Objective, which has become the leader and trusted brand for Agile metrics and probabilistic forecasting. He regularly keynotes at Agile conferences eager to share his passion for using data in better ways to improve business outcomes. Previous clients include Walmart, Microsoft, Skype, Sabre Airline Solutions, Siemens Healthcare.

Troy currently consults and trains organizations wanting to improve decision making for IT through Agile and Lean thinking and tools, applying Scrum and Lean techniques appropriately and where they are going to make this most significant benefit through quantitative rigor.
You can contact him: troy.magennis@focusedobjective.com and follow him on twitter: @t_magennis.


Rethinking Agile – Why Agile Teams Have Nothing To Do With Business Agility with Klaus Leopold



Bio: Dr. Klaus Leopold is a Kanban pioneer and worldwide one of the most experienced and successful lean and agile experts for knowledge work. He provides consulting for global companies on implementing Flight Levels and Kanban, the change processes associated with these and optimizing their value creation.

Abstract: In this talk, I discuss an agile transition where approximately 600 people were involved. The goal was to shorten the time-to-market for initiatives to be able to respond to customer needs more quickly and, as such, improve business agility. In order to achieve this, a reorganization was carried out. Cross-functional teams were constructed so knowledge needed for development is fully available within the team. In addition, the teams were categorized according to product in order to remove any dependencies. Visualization of the work, Standup meetings and Retrospectives made the agile transition complete—except for the expected improvements. In this session, I share what we did to improve the situation and reach the goal of “more business agility”. I also show how you can approach an agile transition of this size, so you can avoid the issue of no improvements being seen. This much I can tell you in advance: do not start at the team level—it will save not only your nerves, but also a lot of money!

For a limited time, grab Klaus Leopold’s Practical Kanban book at Leanpub for a discounted price for the LeanAgileCAN Network. You can use the link below, and/or use the coupon LeanAgileCAN when purchasing the book.

https://leanpub.com/practicalkanban/c/LeanAgileCAN

Agile Leadership as an Everywhere Phenomenon: Leadership from the Inside Out with Michael Hamman



Abstract:

As seasoned Agilists of all stripes are finding, the biggest challenges with agility revolve not so much around its outer aspects—its processes, practices, deliverables, and business outcomes—but around the sensemaking, communication, and relationship intelligence of an organization’s people: its inner aspects. This is where we find the characteristically human problems of resistance, conflict, communication breakdowns, broken promises, people going through the motions with little passion or conviction, deteriorating product quality, managers micro-managing—the world, that is, of mindset and culture—the world of inner agility.

In this session, we will discover what executive coaching, leadership development, and adult development can teach us about the nature of inner agility, why it is so key to the growth of a vibrant and sustained outer agility, and how we can be deliberate about facilitating its growth.

Speaker’s Bio:

Michael Hamman guides organizational leaders toward greater holistic team and enterprise-level agility, primarily by helping them grow their inner capacity for leadership agility in the face of the complexity, volatility, and ambiguity of 21st-century life and business. Among the first to bring Agile coaching into the corporate environment back in 2004, Michael has coached dozens of Fortune 500 companies, leaders and teams toward greater holistic team and enterprise-level agility. He is author of Evolvagility: Growing an Agile Leadership Culture from the Inside Out and is Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Agile Leadership Institute. He currently lives with his wife, Susanne in Taos, NewMexico.

Thanks for watching the LeanAgileCan Webinar series. We'd also want to thank Michael Hamman for taking the time and talking to us. It was a pleasure having him. I am sharing with you some of the resources mentioned during the session.

Michael's Book: Evolvagility: Growing an Agile Leadership Culture from the Inside Out
Amazon.ca: https://amzn.to/2tUoyQr
Amazon.com: https://amzn.to/2CbyWaU

Agile Leadership Institute: http://agile-leadership-institute.com/evolvagility/

Sign up for the newsletter (http://www.leanagilecan.com), to get updates for the next webinars and when new educational videos are added.

Learn more about the Personal Elevation Program. (https://to.sheidaei.com/2EGQ2Ot)

The informational material (https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1CL8K4q7Y1v7Xoz4dUAOVJFO5i9Z7KQjcgDkhKGxBb0o/edit?usp=sharing)  presented today before the main session.